| 1. Identificação | ||||
| Tipo de Referência | Artigo em Evento (Conference Proceedings) | |||
| Site | mtc-m16b.sid.inpe.br | |||
| Código do Detentor | isadg {BR SPINPE} ibi 8JMKD3MGPCW/3DT298S | |||
| Repositório | cptec.inpe.br/adm_conf/2005/10.13.20.50 | |||
| Última Atualização | 2006:04.16.14.24.50 (UTC) administrator | |||
| Repositório de Metadados | cptec.inpe.br/adm_conf/2005/10.13.20.50.23 | |||
| Última Atualização dos Metadados | 2018:06.05.03.42.37 (UTC) administrator | |||
| Chave de Citação | SolmanPess:2006:AnLoFr | |||
| Título | Analysis of low frequency variability patterns and circulation regimes over southern South America and their response to global warming as depicted by IPCC AR4 AOGCMs  | |||
| Formato | CD-ROM, On-line. | |||
| Ano | 2006 | |||
| Data de Acesso | 18 maio 2024 | |||
| Tipo Secundário | PRE CI | |||
| Número de Arquivos | 1 | |||
| Tamanho | 1382 KiB | |||
| 2. Contextualização | ||||
| Autor | 1 Solman, Silvina 2 Pessacg, Natalia | |||
| Afiliação | 1 Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA/CONICET-UBA), Ciudad Universitaria, Pabellón II, 2do piso, 1428, Buenos Aires, Argentina (Solman, Pessacg) | |||
| Endereço de e-Mail do Autor | 1 solman@cima.fcen.uba.ar 2 nataliapessacg@yahoo.com.ar | |||
| Editor | Vera, Carolina Nobre, Carlos | |||
| Endereço de e-Mail | solman@cima.fcen.uba.ar | |||
| Nome do Evento | International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography, 8 (ICSHMO). | |||
| Localização do Evento | Foz do Iguaçu | |||
| Data | 24-28 Apr. 2006 | |||
| Editora (Publisher) | American Meteorological Society (AMS) | |||
| Cidade da Editora | 45 Beacon Hill Road, Boston, MA, USA | |||
| Páginas | 441-449 | |||
| Título do Livro | Proceedings | |||
| Tipo Terciário | Poster | |||
| Organização | American Meteorological Society (AMS) | |||
| Histórico (UTC) | 2005-10-13 20:50:23 :: solman@cima.fcen.uba.ar -> adm_conf :: 2005-12-15 16:23:42 :: adm_conf -> solman@cima.fcen.uba.ar :: 2006-03-14 17:39:07 :: solman@cima.fcen.uba.ar -> administrator :: 2006-04-18 20:51:49 :: administrator -> lise@dpi.inpe.br :: 2010-12-28 12:36:17 :: lise@dpi.inpe.br -> administrator :: 2010-12-29 15:55:04 :: administrator -> lise@dpi.inpe.br :: 2006 2010-12-29 16:05:37 :: lise@dpi.inpe.br -> administrator :: 2006 2010-12-29 18:50:56 :: administrator -> banon :: 2006 2011-01-02 17:14:36 :: banon -> administrator :: 2006 2018-06-05 03:42:37 :: administrator -> :: 2006 | |||
| 3. Conteúdo e estrutura | ||||
| É a matriz ou uma cópia? | é a matriz | |||
| Estágio do Conteúdo | concluido | |||
| Transferível | 1 | |||
| Palavras-Chave | low-frequency variability climate change South America climate regimes | |||
| Resumo | The behavior of low-frequency variability patterns of the atmospheric circulation in response to increased greenhouse gas forcing is studied in an area encompassing southern South America. Last generation 20th and 21st century simulations performed with a set of 8 Atmosphere - Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) participating in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) were analyzed. The focuses of this study are twofold. First, to evaluate the capability of the AOGCMs in representing the observed (as depicted by NCEP reanalysis) main leading modes of low-frequency variability, defined as the leading EOFs calculated as the covariance matrix. Second, to evaluate the response of the main modes of variability to anthropogenic forcing, as depicted by the 21st century simulations under the A2 emission scenario. Moreover, climate change is being analyzed in terms of changes in circulation regimes population representing the more recurrent patterns at interannual and intradecadal time-scales. All calculations are based on monthly mean 500 hPa height. Anomalies were defined with respect to an 11-year running mean throughout the period 1950-2099. Overall, the AOGCMs analyzed are able to capture the broad spatial structure of the main sectorial modes of observed low-frequency variability, say the Antarctic Oscillation mode (AAO) ranging as the first leading mode, and the Pacific South America modes (PSA1 and PSA2) ranging second and third, respectively, though some features appear misplaced. Nevertheless, all the models systematically underestimate the explained variance associated to the PSA1 pattern, characterized by centers of anomalies extending from the tropical eastern Pacific towards southern South America, representing the atmospheric response to ENSO forcing. This common behavior may be associated with too weak ENSO like SSTs anomalies in all models. In all models, the main modes of low-frequency variability are found to remain stationary throughout the 21st century simulation, suggesting they depend more on the internal dynamics of the atmospheric flow than on its external forcing. The linear trend for the present-day climate conditions was compared against NCEP and it was found that only few models are capable to represent adequately the last 50 years observed trend. Nevertheless, all models capture the spatial structure of the trend throughout the 21st century resembling the AAO-like pattern. A cluster analysis, derived from the first few EOFs, was performed to identify large-scale patterns that appear recurrently at fixed locations. A cluster analysis provides very directly a chronology of events that can attributed to a given climate regime, and it is then of straightforward use in order to evaluate whether increasing greenhouse gas forcing induces a change in regime frequencies, a change in the spatial characteristics of the regimes, or both. This methodology allows the analysis of potential changes in the frequency distribution of the climate regimes. Inspection of the circulation regimes derived for the period 1950-2099 for all models showed no significant change in population and thus, in terms of low-frequency variability behavior, climate change manifests only as a positive trend whose spatial pattern is reminiscent of the structure of the AAO mode of variability.. | |||
| Área | MET | |||
| Tipo | Climate change in the SH | |||
| Conteúdo da Pasta doc | acessar | |||
| Conteúdo da Pasta source |
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| Conteúdo da Pasta agreement | não têm arquivos | |||
| 4. Condições de acesso e uso | ||||
| URL dos dados | http://mtc-m16b.sid.inpe.br/ibi/cptec.inpe.br/adm_conf/2005/10.13.20.50 | |||
| URL dos dados zipados | http://mtc-m16b.sid.inpe.br/zip/cptec.inpe.br/adm_conf/2005/10.13.20.50 | |||
| Idioma | en | |||
| Arquivo Alvo | 441-450.pdf | |||
| Grupo de Usuários | solman@cima.fcen.uba.ar administrator | |||
| Visibilidade | shown | |||
| 5. Fontes relacionadas | ||||
| Acervo Hospedeiro | cptec.inpe.br/nobre/2005/06.02.21.14 cptec.inpe.br/walmeida/2003/04.25.17.12 | |||
| 6. Notas | ||||
| Nota | 1 | |||
| Campos Vazios | archivingpolicy archivist callnumber contenttype copyholder copyright creatorhistory descriptionlevel dissemination documentstage doi edition group identifier isbn issn label lineage mirrorrepository nextedition nexthigherunit notes numberofvolumes orcid parameterlist parentrepositories previousedition previouslowerunit progress project readergroup readpermission resumeid rightsholder schedulinginformation secondarydate secondarykey secondarymark serieseditor session shorttitle sponsor subject tertiarymark url versiontype volume | |||